Huihui_Host of EncryptClub: A complete bull market is inseparable from the integration of retail investors and the market. For some time in the past, it was the mainstream cryptocurrencies such as BTC that led the market to rise, while the mainstream upsurge was the heartache of most retail investors. Going through the lost BTC, ETH in past time, it’s worse than stepping on the air. If it is a real bull market, most of the retail investors should get involved in the ups and downs, engagement and gain. This is the bull market for retail investors.
After collecting all your questions, we specially invite five top-level KOLs in EncryptClub to share their insights, answer questions, guide you through a bull market in the year of ox.
EncryptClub·Real Born for the Bull Market
Huihui_Host of EncryptClub: Let’s invite Crypto_Ikkyu to answer the following two questions:
1. Which phase the bull market is in, initial stage?
2. How many types of prioritized layout for Alt Coins?
Crypto_Ikkyu: Thank you Huihui. Which phase the bull market is in, initial stage?
In order to elaborate the question, I compare the big bull market ensuing 2015 with that of this year. Please refer to the following two charts.
Let me explain the above two BTC bull market comparison charts.
Generally speaking, there are three stages upon rise in the bull market.
1. Initial stage: In initial stage, most investors respond slowly, for they vacillate between bull market and rebound.
2. Mainstream upsurge stage: After breaking through the high point of the initial stage, a bull market is about to emerge. The mainstream upsurge stage is the longest market duration.
3. Acceleration stage: Everybody knows that a bull market is coming.
I think this year’s bull market has gone through the first two stages, and now it is in the withdrawal stage after the end of mainstream upsurge. If you don’t make profit in this cycle of bull market, don’t lose heart, for a more vehement wave will arrive in the later acceleration stage. Crypto_Ikkyu here wants to remind you that you should not go short the market outlook due to the withdrawal after this mainstream upsurge wave.
Initial stage & Mainstream upsurge stage & Acceleration stage
Finally, let’s take a look at the chart about overall trend from the first wave of BTC bull market in 2013, i.e., widely known by the public, to the present, so that you can revisit each stage of the bull market.
Crypto_Ikkyu: How many types of prioritized layout are there for Alt Coins?
Since BTC, ETH, and LTC register or approach record high one after another, the cryptocurrencies in the following sections need special attention:
1. Strong consensus & sub-mainstream, such as BCH, BSV, DASH, ZEC and so on
2. Mainstream Alt Coins, such as Link, WAVES, AVAX, DOT and so on
3. Platform crypt-currencies, such as HT, UNI, BNB, OKB.
4. New Alt Coins. We should pay attention to the new cryptocurrencies instead of the old ones. Too many old Alt Coin projects get trapped due to the lack of their own business models or capital. This year, we should pay special attention to the infrastructure projects in Polkadot section.
5. Focus on primary market projects.
At present, the mainstream upsurge of BTC has explicitly ended. Every time BTC pulls up, there will be capital outflow. These capitals enter other sections for speculation. Here is a general description of the rotation sequence of the above sections (speculation logic).
1. The capital will flow into the secondary market first. In this stage, Crypto_Ikkyu recommends paying attention to the strong consensus & sub-mainstream and mainstream Alt Coins.
2. When the premium of secondary market projects is generally high, capital starts entering the primary market for speculation. At this time, a variety of new projects start to raise funds, exchanges begin to launch cryptocurrencies intensively, with all kinds of Alt Coins and platform cryptocurrencies kicking off.
The above-mentioned are some of my experience. I mainly answer the questions about sections and speculation logic worthy of attention in the bull market.
Huihui_Host of EncryptClub: @ACE, here comes two question for you:
Will SNX surpass USD25? Will AAVE exceed USD200?
How to effectively sell at the top and identify market quotation to the end of bull market?
ACE: Would SNX surpass USD25? Will AAVE exceed USD200?
SNX and AAVE are my favorites among Alt Coins. I will jump to the conclusion first. I think it is definite in a short time that SNX will exceed 25 while AAVE surpass 200. Here are the reasons:
Personally, I think the key point of this cycle of bull market will be ETH+DeFi. In this market of chasing profits and money, DeFi is definitely an indispensable part for the improvement of capital efficiency in the fanatic bull market. The landing of DeFi together with the great number of builders can always bring frantic ways. Especially under the circumstances of bull market, it is easy to have crazy wealth-making effect and siphon effect to form a clockwise cycle.
The previous liquidity mining, YFI wealth-making and the recent Algorithm Stable Coins are all good examples. AAVE, the lending leader, and SNX, the derivative leader, are must-have products in the DeFi track, as well as the infrastructure to improve capital efficiency.
When these two big white horses riding in this bull market with ETH + DeFi as the center, together with the wealth-creating effect of DeFi and the siphon effect of large-scale capital, more people will purchase AAVE and SNX products, making the community stronger. In addition to the two genius teams, the community and the team give positive feedback to each other and keep rolling ahead.
So I personally think that AAVE and SNX are the projects that can dash into the new top ten. According to the current market capitalization of the top ten, you could calculate the room left for AAVE and SNX to surge. It is definite that SNX exceeding 25 while AAVE surpassing 200 are only a stage along the journey. The white horses will be black horses when they enter the top ten. Finally, I would like to recommend SNX and AAVE again. I start to wish them bullish since AAVE 28u and SNX 3U.
ACE: How to effectively sell at the top and identify the end of bull market?
In fact, it’s quite hard to answer this question, because there are no exact indicators for selling at the top in the bull market, and there is no data measurement. Of course, if everyone can do that, I’m afraid the bull market will end ahead of time, thus the indicators will be inaccurate.
So I would like to share with you my observation to see if the bull market is over. It may not be true, because it is very difficult to sell at the top, and there is no measurement criterion. We can take it as a way of thinking.
The reason why the bull market is coming to the end is basically that when the new capital enters into the market, the newcomers cannot follow the sudden bull market increases and support the bubble and surged price in the bull market. So we usually examine two aspects:
1. Are there any newcomers?
2. Whether the new capital can keep up with the rapid increases.
The first point is to judge the sentiment of the surrounding market. At the end of the bull market, due to the dramatic increases, a frantic sentiment spreads in the market, giving investors a false impression that everyone is making money upon buying. Investors can get rich from reckless show-hand and there is basically no chance for retracement. If people around you who have little faith in or exposure to blockchain/BTC also enter the market, and they are sure that the bull market will continue, we should be precautious at this time.
After all, these players are the most unlikely to enter the market. No other groups will enter the market later than them. So how can you expect newcomers or new capital to enter the bull market to support soaring prices?
For example, when housewives, who are quite unfamiliar with economy, computer, algorithms and finance, all start talking about BTC and the prospect, it won’t be far from the bull market crash. To put it simply, “if housewives who sell vegetable are speculating in stocks, investors should retreat.” After all, nobody will enter the market later than them. BTC is good as the new-era gold of value storage. Don’t deify it. Dramatic rise of the daily line of bull market can’t be realized without the continuous entrance of newcomers.
For the second point, if no newcomers continuously enter the market, it is impossible to realize the dramatic rise of the daily line of bull market. There is a relatively simple indicator to check whether the new capital can keep up with the rapid increase, that is, Jiang Zhuoer’s accumulated 60-day increase. It is used to judge whether the influx rate of out-the-counter capital can keep up with the steep soar, and whether there are sufficient capital to support the bull market, simple but intuitive, and easy to use. If you are interested, you can delve into it by yourself.
After addressing these two points, we can do some market observations. At present, generally, a sideways trend appears after BTC daily line has significantly accelerated and risen while stagflation of ETH, LTC and other high-quality mainstream cryptocurrencies occurs. Some doomsday chariots, such as EOS and ETC, start surging. But we need to pay special attention when Alt Coins expand violently. The recent big retracement is in fact not rare.
Sentiment has reached a high point in the market. According to market observation, stagflation of ETH and LTC, and a sideways trend of BTC have occurred. BSV, BCH and ETC begin to soar, and ETC is dramatically pulled. Investors must be alerted at this time. When the above three points all occur, I will pay special attention to them.
Special attention needs to be paid on whether it is at the end of the bull market. Generally speaking, it’s difficult to sell at the top in the bull market. It requires much technique. Some articles and gurus have mentioned many technical indicators, which you can learn for reference. However, it is difficult to accurately judge the selling at the top via simple technical indicators. The reason is the same as previously mentioned. Despite the accurate indicators in the first place and heavy use by many investors, they could lose their “mojo”.
So my last piece of advice is that don’t be too greedy and end on good note. If you sometimes feel the sentiment is carried away and the bull market may come to an end, or you have a bad vibe, withdrawal is a good choice. You could leave anytime as long as there’s profit. Money runs no end in the coin community. Investors can still make money when the bull market wraps up. If investors really know their way in the coin community, they will always seize the opportunities, thus they should not be afraid of stepping on the air. In my opinion, the principal is the most important.
Huihui_Host of EncryptClub: Let’s invite luyaoyuan.ETH to answer these 3 questions:
Is the year 2021 the bull market only for mainstream cryptocurrency?
How many types of prioritized layout are there for Alt Coins?
What are the future trend and hot sections?
luyaoyuan.ETH: Is the year 2021 the bull market only for mainstream cryptocurrency?
BTC will set a new record in 2021. Setting aside permanent bull market and millions of dollars, personally it would be satisfactory if I can earn 80,000 dollars in 2021. Amid the ruthless rivaling market, garbage coins are being eliminated, and high-quality tokens will keep rising.
The section rotation occurs ceaselessly in 2020, and the same situation will also occur in 2021. Currently, BTC and coins with high relevance are in the process of pullbacks and consolidations. Some Alt Coins rally and create record high while some of them stay motionless.
The backward narrative will be eliminated with shrinking market capitalization and turnover. The new further enhanced narrative will give investors new expectations. The market pays higher attention on new valuation and new story based on this expectation, causing more buying and higher valuation.
I think, therefore it’s not just the bull market for the mainstream cryptocurrencies,head DeFi and the new public chain, but also the small innovation and hot spots of DeFi should take a break. The head DeFi has formed a bulwark and occupies a solid position, which cannot be surpassed by micro-innovations, unless a new track is formed in the new public chain environment.
luyaoyuan.ETH: How many types of prioritized layout are there for Alt Coins?
In fact, most retail investors have a small amount of capital. Only the previous investors who have suffered losses know the merits of BTC ruling over the crypto world. No matter what kind of hot spot prevails, the long-term capital reflux of BTC will benefit BTC holders. But smart retail investors will not just wait for capital reflux with BTC. How would they prioritize the layout?
1. Market capitalization above 10B is suitable for investors with assets of over 1 million dollars. BTC, ETH, LTC can be purchased in turn to gain interests. You can buy LTC after BTC finishes rising and switch back to BTC after ETH finishes rising. It’s really hard to predict the pattern. The easy way is to hold BTC without any rotation.
2. 1B-10B market capitalization targets DOT, BNB, SNX, AAVE, UNI, YFI.
In pursuit of liquidity and long-term story, Polkadot talked about the story from last year to this year, from over 100 dollars before the split to 10 dollars after the split into 100 times. It should earn 10 times. Last year’s net worth, if less than 10 times, doesn’t justify the the market.
BNB is the leader of platform cryptocurrencies. It has reached its peak compared with other platform cryptocurrencies. The valuation given by overseas institutions is also 43 dollars. It will reach the ceiling until Coinbase is launched into market, for we all know BNB is benchmarked against Coinbase. After Coinbase is marketed, it opens the ceiling of the total market capitalization of platform cryptocurrencies. Other platform cyrptocurrencies rise along with BNB. It has nothing to do with the efforts of the platform.
SNX, AAVE, UNI, DeFi blue chips have good liquidity and complete story, making it unnecessary to introduce Layer 2 development and the expansion of asset repetitive mortgage, for the markets has given the answer.
YFI aims to beat BTC while MKR intends to beat ETH. All these need to be done at the bottom of their exchange rate to stimulate 50% a day through rebound. This point is hard to track, but it has already happened. Just before the start of AMA, YFI announced the repurchase proposal and increased by 10% in half an hour, almost 1 YFI = 1 BTC. Those who can capture the information in advance attain the wealth.
3. 100M-1B market capitalization has many options, such as SOL, COMP, SUSHI, NEAR, GRT, BAND, BAL, CRV.
SOL and NEAR in the new public chain track rival against each other. Polkadot doesn’t need a Oracle, but its services. Compared LINK and BAND, the latter has more room for growth.
COMP, SUSHI, BAL at least have a better new year’s roadmaps, no matter on Fast Access Blockchain network (FAB), Polkadot or Layer2.
CRV is greatly influenced by CeFi of Binance, but it is still the first choice as the decentralized alternative for stable coin. If the new roadmap goes to Layer2, Polkadot will be definitely superior to CeFi.
GRT turnover is large on Coinbase, the cornerstone of DeFi. Layer2 DeFi still needs this kind of service and will exist for a long time.
4. The market capitalization between 10M to 100M is gigantic, and many projects could exceed the market capitalization of 100M. Projects at this stage have poor liquidity but better odds. If their market capitalization surpasses 100M, they will be advanced.
BTC won’t stop. GAS crowded with shitcoins hardly rejoiced. Most products on Rebase are failures. Algorithm Stable Coin needs to prove itself. With a new track and a new king, if you bet right, it is YFI, if wrong, it is YAM. Investors should choose Alt Coins with different odds according to their respective assets. Please remember to follow liquidity and story.
luyaoyuan.ETH: What are the future trend and hot sections?
Regardless of the short-term market, Ethereum is soaring. The trend opinion of 2021 is the same as the articles in chain news. The first is about the development of Polkadot ecosystem and Ethereum Layer 2. There is no doubt about the development of Polkadot ecosystem. The exchange distributes ecological fund support. Recently, the market has doubled directly. KSM and DOT parallel chain slot auctions cost tens of millions of dollars. Many Polkadot ecosystem projects have already been launched on the exchanges. Investors need to distinguish the quality of the projects and pay attention to the priority, and investigate the valuation, chip release and team profile in detail instead of getting a bargain. If they pay special attention to the new Polkadot ecosystem projects, there are always nice opportunities. As for the progress of the Polkadot ecosystem projects, if you dig further, you will find that it is still in a quite early stage, but it does not affect the currency price and the spread of the story.
At present, ordinary people can’t afford Ethereum. In a short term, I won’t invoke the complicated DeFi contract any more. It’s the general trend to switch to Layer2. However, as Layer2 has various schemes, supporting functions and launch time, we should not blindly lay out. We can choose several targets on Layer2 track, ensuring the leader is in the selected ones.
Next is the layout of Ethereum or non-Ethereum, transfer to Layer2, DeFi of Polkadot ecosystem, and infrastructure projects. These projects will continue to tell their own stories, rather than staying in the era of 2020.
Aggregator is nothing new while cross-chain aggregator is refreshing. Once Polkadot aggregator is launched, it attracts 100 times capital. Curve, to some extent, is affected by the liquidity mining of CeFi of Binance. The dying DeFi also needs roadmap upgrade. Projects, such as Swrv, Mta, Idex, AST, MFT, have been hyped but lost their buzz. Changes will happen only if the team wants to release a new roadmap and migrate it to Layer2 and other chains. Otherwise, it is not necessary to add to the optional list.
DeFi projects, such as SNX, UNI, COMP and SUSHI, have been released on Polkadot ecosystem, Layer2 and new chains. Only projects with continuous innovation can live up to that market capitalization.
Everything happened suddenly at the beginning of 2021. It is hard to lay out the bull market. Investors should control risks and reduce costs to enter the market. As for the Anonymous Coin and SEC alert section, retail investors should not gain profit in risk. For Algorithm Stable Coin, you should check Basis and Mith. I don’t think Algorithm Stable Coin with intelligent chain would eventually work. Quick performance leads to quick ending. It is feasible to get the best deal.
Huihui_Host of EncryptClub: Luckily to have Crypto Bigbro to share his views and thoughts about the following 3 questions:
What are the future trend and hot sections?
Many people claims that capitalization of KSM can reach 30% of that of DOT. What are your reactions to those two and which one is prioritized?
How to effectively sell at the top and identify the end of bull market?
Crypto Bigbro: What are the future trend and hot sections?
For the short-term trend, personally, I think previous mainstream coins will take the lead.
After 3-week suspension of Grayscale, ICO application channel has been reopened. Subsequent buy-in is about to start. The owner of Grayscale has twitted to ask investors to fasten the safety belt. It is highly probable for the rising channel of BTC to reopen.
As my Weibo posted yesterday, Grayscale official website has opened the ICO of crypto trust funds except ETH and XPP. However, today’s position data have no increase or decrease and only management fees are deducted.
Note: From the company’s announcement of suspending new investment on December 22 last year to the recent resumption of subscription, [BTC position retreats by 600 pieces while ETH decreases by 6,842 pieces]. In addition, the price of Bitcoin has increased from US $22,500 upon suspension to US $33,000 as this Weibo is posted (with 47% of increase). It once reached the highest point of around $42,000 (with 87% of increase) during this period.
The increase missed in the three-week suspension period of Grayscale is several times of the annualized yield of the conventional investment. You can imagine how aggressive new investors would be. So old bros, please cherish the spot goods in hand, and then keep purchasing after release.
It’s not about the buy-in capital spent on Grayscale, but after this wave of adjustment, the market capital will tag along Grayscale as bellwether.
As for Alt Coin, when BTC rallies and stabilizes or the recent continuous negative close of BTC market occurs, you will find that Alt Coins begin to defy BTC and Ethereum, then moment for Alt Coins are coming.
For hot section, I feel optimistic about Polkadot ecosystem + DeFi + Layer2. I will briefly talk about Polkadot ecosystem. Apart from DOT and KSM, at present, I pay more attention to the portfolio of Polkadot + Binance. As Binance is supported by ten millions of dollars, many projects have been invested by Angel Investment in turn.
Polkadot projects backed by Binance will definitely usher in a wave of upsurge and is expected to be on the screen in February. At present, investors in small groups have begun to ambush this kind of projects one after another.
Crypto Bigbro’s Q&A 2: Many people claims that capitalization of KSM can reach 30% of that of DOT. What are your reactions to those two and which one is prioritized?
First, I would like to talk about my position allocation, DOT : KSM = 4 : 6, keep mining by pledge. Market capitalization of DOT is around 8 billion while that of KSM is 600 million. It only rises about 10% now. KSM needs to rise to 30% of DOT, three times. When slot auction of KSM kicks off in March-April, I think it might surge with great probability. I hold more KSM than DOT.
Chips of KSM are more centralized than those of DOT. Chip is a strong factor when it rises from low-price level. As for the implementation, there is no need to bet on a single cryptocurrency. The intersection of two position users and big dealers is large, so it is difficult to determine which can pull up more in the short term.
The trend of the two targets is directly linked, so it’s good to buy them directly and earn average yield. My friends in the small group all know that I usually hold portfolio instead of individual ones.
Crypto Bigbro’s: How to effectively sell at the top and identify the end of bull market?
Before I answer this question, I would like to talk about the retracement market, and why the bull market has not ended yet.
BTC has set new records and almost doubled while ETH hasn’t yet. That’s why the bull market doesn’t come to the end, as it always ends up with all kinds of Alt Coins hitting record highs.
Throughout the top ten cryptocurrencies at the end of recent years, several cryptocurrencies are replaced by newcomers every year. The year 2020 was the first year of DeFi, and a large number of high-quality DeFi application-layer projects started to emerge and land. It is no doubt that the bull market in 2021 is promising. The core story, I believe, will still be the term DeFi.
The above chart is my previous forecast for the top ten cryptocurrencies before the end of 2021. Let’s have a look at the bull market in 2017. The market capitalization of the tenth is 9.5 billion dollars, while the tenth this year is around 5.7 billion dollars There were over 40 companies that exceeded 3 billion dollars in 2017 on Binance exchange. But at present there are only 15 crypto markets. If Alt Coins don’t go frantic and market capitalization hasn’t met the standard, how can we conclude that the market is over?
The recent big BTC retracement lasts the longest in the continuous negative close in this wave of continuous rise. The style of market capital may not be able to switch over upon such occurrence. But after it occurs for a few times, you can find that Alt Coins start defying the command of BTC and ETH, the moment for Alt Coins truly kicks off!
Having said so, I actually answer the first half of the question. Alt Coins are actually the indicators for the top of the market. At least the market capitalization of 2017 can be referred to. As for the end of the market, there are a plethora of indicators, especially the data analysis indicators on the chain.
However, I personally think that the indicator about new customer amount of the exchange may be the most straightforward and desirable reference indicator. After all, new capital entering the market is the most straightforward feedback. We may find specific data from all different disclosure channels in different exchanges. We haven’t find a platform to share them directly and regularly. I will pay more attention to this aspect in the future. As long as I get relevant data, I will share them regularly with you, just like the Grayscale position data.
Huihui_Host of EncryptClub: Let’s invite our pro trader AltCoin Trader to recommend some low-cap gems and answer the last question: how to effectively sell at the top and identify market to the end of bull market?
Alt Trader: low-cap GEM
Compared with the mainstream cryptocurrencies, Alt Coins have greater volatility risk. In addition to legendary investors, such as Real Madrid and Ozora Tsubasa, only a few people get rich overnight by one cryptocurrency show-hand. Here is Survivorship Bias. When retail investors choose low-value GEM, they will first diversify investment, and then focus on “projects with strong institutional background or track and community advantages”.
Simply speaking, the strong background is that the investment institutions are awesome. Looking back on the frantic performance of the Coinbase projects last year, the Oracle Coin TRB of Binance Labs, its price rose from 1 yuan to 600 yuan. Moreover, after we see how ZEN held by Grayscale and its parent company stand out, we can know the significance of the background. Barry, owner of Grayscale, has twitted to recommend DC and REL invested by Coinbase as lottery tickets.
The second is the track and community advantages. For example, star projects such as YFI were generated on DeFi track and made KP3R of AC series go viral. XOR (Polkadex) of Polkadot has risen 800 times (from 1 yuan to 800 yuan). Even I purchased it at the price of 1 dollar, I still made a decent profit. UNC, once a shitcoin, became a shitcoin killer after locking the imperative function of liquidity pool, and rose for hundreds of times. I purchased it in domestic exchanges and reaped a good profit. NDR, kind of high-quality project of NFT section, only has circulation capitalization of over 100,000 dollars. Many overseas KOLs consider it promising, and it ‘s worth of attention.
If you couldn’t decide Alt Coins, and could only spend little time checking the market, it would be better to purchase some Shit of FTX, i.e., Alt Coin indicators for medium-and-small capitalization without activating lever function. It means if you only have a principal of 100,00 dollars, you just purchase coins worthy of 100,00 dollars.
Alt Trader’s Q&A 2: How to effectively sell at the top and identify the end of bull market?
Based on the four-year cycle of BTC, Ethereum 2.0, global QE and the entrance process of institutional investors, Alt Trader believes that the middle stage of bull market was about to come at the end of last year. At present, it seems that tail-rising market started to appear in November.
In the bull market, Litecoin will reach unprecedented previous highs, so before LTC reach USD 370, investors should not be worried about the end of the bull market. When the bull market hits its peak, Bitcoin will surge again (after this mainstream upsurge). At that time, you can buy the hedging positions of put options at relatively high points.
Huihui_Host of EncryptClub: Thank you, dear KOLs, for your wonderful sharing. The KOLs of AMA all have their own research and individual paid groups. Those who are interested in or resonant can talk to them in private, or read their AMA articles previously released on the Weibo account of EncryptClub. They are absolutely full of tips, which you must not wait for.
As EncryptClub is a platform, we won’t do much research on single cryptocurrencies. However, an important part of our ecosystem, KOLs are directly involved in the study of single cryptocurrencies, thus we immerse ourselves in the market and follow the market judgment to analyze and search around the clock in a specialized way.
Thanks again for your participation in AMA. We will introduce more high-quality interviews in the future to bring you more great contents.